*AV*--I got my fingers crossed for you. The sector looks as if the streets are flowing in blood and guts.<GG>
Radar Trader Newsletter
High Tech Commentary-- Scan List
August 28, 1998
OPENING COMMENTARY FOR AUGUST 28, 1998 - Andrew Vance
TIMELY TOPICS
But is there some justice out there in the market??? Well, just one comeuppance. Good old ENMD, that $12 stock that skyrocketed to $86 from the close on a Friday to the open on the following Monday based on some recycled information and story printed in the NY Times Sunday edition. Crash and burn from $86 as people got wiped out on its collapse within minutes of its Monday opening. The agony dragged on as smart short sellers took profits by covering in the 50s, 40s and high 30s. Some of us got into discussions about it finding its real home at close to $20. Well, it made the list today and I noticed the price at $20.75, up more than $2 for the day. Apparently it retraced back to a more respectable trading price. Today's pop in price was due to the issuance of a patent, I would surmise. This might have brought out some of the people trying to recoup some of their losses from the previous debacle. Wishful thinking.
REXI was beat up again and actually had a good play for the brave souls that jumped onto it in the high $11 range to the low $13 range. Day to day, the stock still lost ground and may not have touched bottom yet even though its graph might indicate a gradually turn on the bottom. Still trading at 20X average daily volume. Who is trading all these shares back and forth?? Is someone accumulating this stock for some reason?
PWJ-No news and trading just under 3X average daily volume. Stock lost over 12% today, down 5-1/8 to $39.125 for no apparent reason. What I find rather interesting here is the negative trend in this stock over the past few days and the barrage of "boiler room" operations touting this stock as a dynamite buy. Reasons range from sticking to the NYSE solid companies to the resurfacing of the Banking consolidations of the past few months where Brokerage firms are being targeted. For those of you into these types of rumors, we have the re-surfaced Duetsche Bank AG (DBKG.F) apparent overtures towards PWJ. Scuttle butt supposedly is that they are talking rather seriously now and the deal is imminent. So here is the deal. Solid rumor and the stock is selling off. Chart indicates stock was in the high 20s around February and made a run to the mid 50s early August. All of a sudden it is an ugly stepchild and POOF, we are a $39 "bargain". Keep in mind that Aug 11th-14th this stock had 4 successive days of trading in the 1.5M-2.5M volume range while the price range of $45.625 to $53.375, a 52 week high, was achieved. You have to go all the way back to mid April to see trading volumes over 1 million shares which resulted in a positive motion of about $2-$3.
MOT(48, -2 1/16)-Every time this stock slips under $50, it becomes an attractive candidate for a positional trade. For the long term investors, the present economic debacle will eventually come to an end and companies like MOT will get back on track. As a major semiconductor supplier, a leader in the wireless communications sector, advanced electronic systems, and its new foray into set top electronic access, to name a few, MOT is firmly entrenched in the "Electronic Revolution" that will proliferate through our global society. Heaven help us when China is penetrated. After market close, the following news appeared.
Thursday August 27, 8:40 PM EDT - Motorola Inc. stated it will provide the technology used in a demonstration of a working model of the set top new box, a computerized box which sits on top of a TV. It has been speculated to provide an assortment of services ranging from Internet access to movies on demand. Supposedly this represents a significant set-top box technology where MOT will be a technology provider. Motorola will provide the semiconductor chip set, used in the set-top box, thereby providing enhanced Internet-related technology.
RADAR TRADER RST SCAN LIST COMMENTARY FOR AUGUST 28, 1998
SMTC(16-3/8, -1/8)-They deserve huge standing ovation for not getting eviscerated today while the market tanked. I may have to be a believer in this company down the road for the strength it showed in this adverse environment. No news and previous commentaries will bring you up to date.
CMOS(16-3/4, +1/8)-The only other semiconductor related stock on the list today gets high praise for moving up fractionally when the big guns were getting creamed. Interestingly enough, CMOS deals in the back end IC testing equipment market much like TER. However, TER fell $2 to $18.81 today, in line with the better known equipment sector stocks. No real news to report and hopefully CMOS will not be part of tomorrow's second wave of price disappointments.
CYBX(6-3/4, +1/8)-very good action here today for the astute daytrader since this stock did trade in the $6.00 to $6.875 range, making this at least a $0.50 play for those with "the touch".
THDO(3-27/32, -1/16)-one of 3 gaming stocks to make the list again today. It's almost as if we are waiting for some "shocking" turn of events. All of the gamers seem to be on the sidelines just waiting to pounce on something. We might be getting a small hint of this as you read the AKLM comments.
MPRS((5-11/16, -1/16)-still waiting for the Hasbro takeover but their is word that certain MPRS games will be offered for sale through DRIV. Well, after a poor showing in IPO land, DRIV could use all the help it can muster.
AKLM(6-3/4, -1/4)-at least this stock moved off the $7 mark for the time being. Shows that there is life in this stock. Two news releases, one giving them a "Superior" rating (along with EGGS CHRS, and ECO) from the Association for Investor Awareness(AIA) and another heralding the arrival of a new game for the Nintendo 64 system. The AIA rates the performance of the Investor Relations departments at publicly traded companies.
Acclaim Entertainment's Iggy's Reckin' Balls Swings its Way Onto the N64 This Week
biz.yahoo.com
SPYG(13-11/16, 1/16)-press release relating to the MOT set top box gave mentioned they were working with SPYG, in passing. Other than that, it is again remarkable that SPYG has held its own given the reversals in other software stocks in its sector and some of the internet stocks. NSCP down 2 5/8 to 23 15/16, MSFT down 3 9/16 to 109, BROD down « to 14, AOL down 5 11/16 to 105, YHOO down 5 13/16 to 91 1/16; DCLK down 2 1/8 to 31 ¬, BCST down 2 « to 51, and INKT down 3 3/32 to 71 25/32.
ENMD(20-3/4, 2 3/8)-comments are in the top section of this report. In the news yesterday (before the market opened) a Gene Patent Issues For a Potent Angiogenesis Inhibitor Licensed to EntreMed Inc. was issued. This patent covers the gene used to produce Angiostatin(TM) protein and also includes vectors of this protein, that may be used in gene therapy. Other patents have been previously issued covering the Angiostatin(TM) protein in the treatment of angiogenic-mediated diseases, such as cancer and blindness.
biz.yahoo.com
CYCH(9-1/2, -27/32)-trading close to 4X its average daily volume, it appear that it was giving back some of its previous day's gains. The novelty of the CEO buying back shares must have worn off.
AND NOW A WORD FROM THE RADAR ROOM:
What a rotten day in the Wall Street neighborhood and it isn't going to get any better this morning. The Nikkei is cratering again over night so expect a bloody day this Friday morning unless things turn around in my sleep. And as if things couldn't get any worse, well, it just may get worse. The semiconductor technology and equipment sector is not worth even discussing these days as stocks plummet to lows that are just totally incomprehensible. A very oversold condition producing PEs of ridiculously low proportions. Single digit and low teen PEs in this sector versus the outrageous PEs and large losses and negative earnings of the Internet sector. We have pathetically low valuations for the tech sector and unbelievably unjustified high valuations for the internet sector. Go Figure.
Well, the boys of "The Street" got it all figured. They are driving out all the small investors and burning them for a second time in two weeks. But to make matters worse, they are setting up for another nice Options Friday in 3 weeks. This will be a "Triple Witching" Options Friday. They are positioning themselves for a great potential mini rally for the techs in time for Christmas.
Andrew Vance
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Prosearch 5.0* Top Stock Report 08/27/98
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9> SMTC - SEMTECH CORP COM .ESE
Price= 16.4 ( 69) AvgVl= 210.1 ( 91) 1-Dy = 99.2 ( 68)
2-Dy = 99.2 ( 72) 3-Dy = 97.0 ( 60) 4-Dy = 100.0 ( 79)
1-Wk = 100.7 ( 90) VL/30= 200.0 ( 90) 2/30 = 217.8 ( 89)
3/30 = 172.1 ( 84) 4/30 = 133.9 ( 76) 5/30 = 114.1 ( 66)
%Rnge= 62.0 ( 75) DRAvg= 64.0 ( 91) ConDy= -1.0 ( 69)
10> CMOS - CREDENCE SYSTEMS CORP COM .EEE
Price= 16.8 ( 70) AvgVl= 253.4 ( 92) 1-Dy = 100.7 ( 95)
2-Dy = 100.3 ( 89) 3-Dy = 98.5 ( 69) 4-Dy = 96.4 ( 55)
1-Wk = 96.4 ( 61) VL/30= 220.4 ( 92) 2/30 = 188.1 ( 85)
3/30 = 178.0 ( 86) 4/30 = 168.6 ( 87) 5/30 = 147.0 ( 83)
%Rnge= 77.0 ( 82) DRAvg= 38.0 ( 44) ConDy= 1.0 ( 87)
14> CYBX - CYBERONICS INC COM .MED
Price= 6.8 ( 20) AvgVl= 482.8 ( 96) 1-Dy = 101.8 ( 96)
2-Dy = 106.9 ( 98) 3-Dy = 102.8 ( 96) 4-Dy = 94.7 ( 40)
1-Wk = 91.5 ( 29) VL/30= 93.7 ( 70) 2/30 = 100.9 ( 51)
3/30 = 109.5 ( 58) 4/30 = 119.5 ( 68) 5/30 = 137.6 ( 79)
%Rnge= 86.0 ( 85) DRAvg= 56.0 ( 82) ConDy= 2.0 ( 95)
17> THDO - 3DO CO COM .DSO
Price= 3.8 ( 11) AvgVl= 363.0 ( 94) 1-Dy = 98.3 ( 62)
2-Dy = 99.1 ( 71) 3-Dy = 102.4 ( 96) 4-Dy = 106.0 ( 98)
1-Wk = 102.4 ( 96) VL/30= 95.5 ( 71) 2/30 = 96.8 ( 48)
3/30 = 111.1 ( 59) 4/30 = 98.3 ( 53) 5/30 = 92.0 ( 48)
%Rnge= 77.0 ( 82) DRAvg= 71.0 ( 95) ConDy= -1.0 ( 69)
20> SPYG - SPYGLASS INC COM .INT
Price= 13.7 ( 60) AvgVl= 545.2 ( 96) 1-Dy = 100.4 ( 94)
2-Dy = 93.1 ( 25) 3-Dy = 97.7 ( 64) 4-Dy = 102.8 ( 96)
1-Wk = 100.0 ( 79) VL/30= 131.7 ( 80) 2/30 = 120.6 ( 63)
3/30 = 157.3 ( 80) 4/30 = 144.1 ( 80) 5/30 = 135.3 ( 78)
%Rnge= 58.0 ( 73) DRAvg= 62.0 ( 89) ConDy= 1.0 ( 87)
30> ENMD - ENTREMED INC COM .DRE
Price= 20.8 ( 79) AvgVl= 231.2 ( 92) 1-Dy = 112.9 ( 99)
2-Dy = 98.8 ( 70) 3-Dy = 97.7 ( 64) 4-Dy = 91.2 ( 20)
1-Wk = 88.7 ( 18) VL/30= 444.5 ( 98) 2/30 = 372.9 ( 97)
3/30 = 276.2 ( 95) 4/30 = 221.4 ( 94) 5/30 = 189.8 ( 92)
%Rnge= 81.0 ( 84) DRAvg= 29.0 ( 24) ConDy= 1.0 ( 87)
41> CYCH - CYBERCASH INC COM .INT
Price= 9.5 ( 31) AvgVl= 515.2 ( 96) 1-Dy = 91.8 ( 8)
2-Dy = 103.4 ( 97) 3-Dy = 124.5 ( 99) 4-Dy = 117.3 ( 99)
1-Wk = 115.1 ( 99) VL/30= 214.0 ( 91) 2/30 = 400.0 ( 97)
3/30 = 362.6 ( 97) 4/30 = 284.4 ( 97) 5/30 = 240.7 ( 96)
%Rnge= 14.0 ( 34) DRAvg= 52.0 ( 76) ConDy= -1.0 ( 69)
43> MPRS - MICROPROSE INC COM .DSO
Price= 5.7 ( 17) AvgVl= 226.9 ( 92) 1-Dy = 98.9 ( 66)
2-Dy = 98.9 ( 70) 3-Dy = 99.4 ( 73) 4-Dy = 97.8 ( 65)
1-Wk = 97.8 ( 68) VL/30= 60.8 ( 61) 2/30 = 47.7 ( 18)
3/30 = 81.9 ( 38) 4/30 = 95.5 ( 51) 5/30 = 87.7 ( 44)
%Rnge= 63.0 ( 76) DRAvg= 51.0 ( 74) ConDy= -1.0 ( 69)
47> AKLM - ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT INC COM .LTG
Price= 6.8 ( 20) AvgVl= 618.9 ( 97) 1-Dy = 96.4 ( 41)
2-Dy = 99.0 ( 71) 3-Dy = 96.4 ( 55) 4-Dy = 97.3 ( 62)
1-Wk = 98.1 ( 69) VL/30= 87.3 ( 69) 2/30 = 85.6 ( 41)
3/30 = 101.1 ( 52) 4/30 = 85.7 ( 43) 5/30 = 92.5 ( 48)
%Rnge= 72.0 ( 80) DRAvg= 66.0 ( 92) ConDy= -1.0 ( 69)
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