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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising
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To: billy d who wrote (1099)8/28/1998 1:28:00 AM
From: Bob Swift  Read Replies (1) of 10280
 
Billy and Mazen,
Both of you are old timers of this board and it is interesting to see that you two have diverge opinions. I can see Mazen's points regarding the interest rate, inflation and US dollar value etc.which historically more or less determine the price of stocks. That said, even by historical standard, these three years the market is getting way ahead of itself (that is what my crude chart tells me).
At this moment, I am not so sure that the world finanical melt down has been totally factored into stock prices which are quite expensive even after the correction.I have looked but not see any in depth analysis of how the world's problem may have an effect on the US economy.Is it really true that it won't have an effect because we are doing well by ourselves ? We are a net importer but that does not mean it does not hurt the export side of the equation. On the import side of the equation, how is a cheaper Japanese car going to affect GM ? We are getting kill both ways.Also, I suspect that part of the reason we are doing so well is because of our inflated stock gain which give us the impluse to consume and Washington more tax $ to flush down the toilet. Will this market correction dampen this stock wealth effect? If the growth of profit is limited, so will the surge in price of stocks. I am sure the US economy will do OK but not at a rate to justify the surge in stock prices as years past.

I may be wrong, but I do worry about the possibility that the Prozac story is already in the price of the stock since it is now almost common knowledge that Prozac is in our bag with or without Lily.I am just mindful of the Clartin licensing last year when the stock failed to rally and people start to sell on the news from 41 7/8 down to 33 or so.To me the thing I am looking forward to is the 21 days or three month sales figure of levalbuterol after launch. Meanwhile, anxious money to get in SEPR is keeping us afloat, for now.
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