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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Rocketman who wrote (5520)8/28/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: Andreas Helke  Read Replies (2) of 9719
 
Biotech rally

We will have a spectacular biotech rally in the next few years. It would be nice if we could figure out when the rally will start. It will definitely be later than I expected.

Here is a table of earnings and estimates for a bunch of biotech companies.
AFFX HGSI INCY MLNM ARQL PCOP AGPH ARIA DEPO DURA FUSE GILD GZTC ICOS IMNX ISIP LIPO MEDI SEPR VRTX IDPH LGND CNTO CORR GLFD NRGN ANIK CHAI GENZL GLIA AMGN BCHE BGEN CHIR GENZ

 95	 96	 97	 98	99	0	1       Year
-32,84	-21,94	-25,63	-12,395	3,815	29,035	44,429  sum of EPS


It is probably appropriate that biotechs did not do well the last few years. After all they delivered about the same losses every year. This year we are finally seeing rapid earnings growth - unfortunately still from big losses to smaller losses only. Starting next year the biotech industry will deliver real earnings. The 2001 figure is seriously underestimated because I don't have 2001 earnings estimates for many of the companies.

Andreas

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