Greenspan's SICK Yield Curve
Mr. Greenspan's yield curve is the sickest yield curve
ever seen!
From an article 8 months old -->
"The Fed is going to feel nervous about a very flat or slightly inverted yield curve," said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust. "That's got to make fed nervous, because historically an inverted yield is a precursor to recession."
The yield curve is MUCH worse now - infact it's in the worst
shape ever recorded!
BTW/ deflation is OLD news to some people. Have you checked out
gold and oil prices lately? BTW/ USA is still very oil
dependent. Commodities, GOLD, and oil have been good
indicators of inflation. All of these things are hitting
lows that have not been seen in decades!
More articles on deflation:
cbs.marketwatch.com
Japan's slide into depression:
marketwatch.newsalert.com
BTW/ your numbers are small glitches in the real picture. The slide towards deflation started a long time ago. As you have said,
deflation does take time. Prices have been going down for a long
time.
More...
1/8/98:
cbs.marketwatch.com
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan acknowledged last weekend that federal policy makers are concerned that deflation could set in as the world economy deals with a regional slowdown in Asia and a glut of many commodities.
And today Federal Reserve Governor Laurence Meyer told economists meeting in Washington that "a little deflation is worse than a little inflation," strengthening perceptions that the Fed won't raise and may even lower interest rates later this year.
Steinberg said the Asian shock will pressure prices of goods lower, especially in consumer durables, electronics, steel and textiles. The shock is also reducing worldwide demand for oil just when El Nino is keeping many regions of the United States unseasonably warm.
Even Greenspan acknowledges that deflation has already begun -
This was at the end of last year - its worse now.
Greenspan doesn't worry too much about commodities, gold, or oil.
He is worried about real estate and stock prices. Once these start
to deflate, he will step in. As long as interest rates are
low real estate prices will stay higher. However, the stock market
is heading south. Consumer attitude is worsening. If the market
drops more, the retail sector will suffer a bad Xmas. I believe
that last Xmas was the first real good season for retailers since the
BULL market began?? If the retail market misses this one, say
good bye to many things because at that point it will represent
a weak semiconductor, software, and retail market. The rest will
follow. It's a spiral and it spreads.
Yet more on deflation:
cbs.marketwatch.com
"Still worse, no one seems to pay any attention to the fact that money growth rates have been slow, interest rate levels remain above pre-inflation (1960s') levels, and real interest rates are quite high."
As our neighbor's markets get worse do you think that our
neighbors will stop selling to Americans? Okay we know the
answer, it's no. Do you think that they will sell their products
to us at higher prices while their currency has been reduced
50% or more?? No! Americans will buy the products cheaper.
Our weak neighbors have been and will continue to sell us the
same products for cheaper prices. This will deflate prices for us
further.
More articles to support deflation risks:
pathfinder.com
kcstar.com:80/item/pages/business.pat,business/30da54b8.827,.html
"Meanwhile,
imports surged at a 10 percent rate as devalued foreign
currencies made imported products cheaper for
American consumers. "
Surging imports and Imports at cheaper prices means deflationary
risk!!
As far as you inflationary numbers, check this statement:
"Consumer spending was up at a 5.8 percent annual rate
in the April-June quarter, while inflation remained
dormant. A price measure tied to the gross domestic
product rose at a tiny 0.8 percent annual rate, the best
since 1963. "
Greenspan STARTED this decline - It was mid July when he uttered
his STUPID words.
Like I said, if the market goes much more south, this will
affect consumers and make a terrible Xmas. This is turn
will create a very large MESS for our beloved Mr. Greenspan.
Allen Sinai, president of Primark Decision Economics, agreed and he predicted that Mr. Greenspan will reverse his inclination to tighten rates by the first quarter of 1999. "A reduction is called for not to help the stock market or bail out investors but because of the risk to the growth of the U.S. economy," he said. Mr. Sinai predicted the stock market correction would continue, with the Dow possibly dipping as low as 8,000. He said that a bear market and recession are unlikely but he warned that either could happen if the Dow dips significantly lower than that. "I would get very worried if the correction moved to 7,000 or 7,500 on the Dow," he said. "At that point enough value would be lost that it would reduce consumer spending and hurt the economy."
If rates are not cut before the DOW gets to 7500, I think it
will be too late for the upcoming Xmas season!
Some may say, DOW 7500? Are you crazy? Let me ask, what kind of
prospects is there now or possible future news will make the stocks
resume their trend towards 10,000? Nothing, the near term outlook
for atleast the next two quarters is very gloomy for tech stocks.
If Xmas is bad, then retail stocks will be bad. BTW/ bank stocks
are beginning to get smashed - several did yesterday.
Most of the DOW and NASDAQ run up is based upon the tech stocks.
They will reap what they sow. If they increase like tech stocks,
they will decrease like tech stocks. This would mean a DOW of
less than 7500! Most likely 5,000! What's going to hold it up
once the blue chips take their hits? |
