Todd: so far I have resisted the temptation to average down. There may be no need to rush. The sentiment is so negative for oil that it will probably take some time to turn.
As someone else said yesterday, once the short term panic of the current situation passes, it will be the DELLs, MSFT's, YAHOO's etc and the major large caps in the DOW which will benefit, if recent history is an accurate guide.
I have been almost as tempted to short the inflated internet stocks as I have been to buy more oil services :)
Here in the LA oilpatch, I am starting to see some signs of a cutback: Baker Oil Tools looks like it has stopped construction of a new headquarters facility which they broke ground on this spring. Also heard a rumor that Baker has laid off about 50 people locally. It is tough to judge what is going on, because Unifab, Oil Barges, Inc, OMNI, and many others continue to advertise for workers on billboards, radio, and TV. Just looking at the activity, things still appear to be booming. The appearances are probably misleading.
My bartender, who has been in the same location since the 70's, has started crying about a drop off in business, so we probably do have a slowdown. Maybe that is a sign of the bottom? :)
Good luck, Chas (soon to double his position in VRC) |
