bobby,
I've watched and lurked for a year+. Thought last Oct was it, only to be punished by the reversal, so big, so fast.
Real good interview on NBR this evening, here's a snip from the intro:
KANGAS: On our New Year's Day program on the very first day of 1998, we featured your one line stock market forecast and I quote: "A combination of global deflation, economic slowdown and extreme overvaluation will make this one of the highest risk years in decades." Although that prediction seemed well off the market till mid-July, it appears now that vindication is yours. And I don't believe you're the kind to gloat, are you?
STACK: Well, certainly not, Paul, especially with what's happening on Wall Street, because I don't think the worst is over. This is a confirmed bear market. One of our long-term leadership gauges that measures downside leadership turned negative two months ago. It's showing very heavy bear market distribution. In addition, one survey shows the average NASDAQ and New York Stock has now lost 35 percent from its 52-week high. That doesn't look a temporary correction.
KANGAS: But some say a bear market can't happen with interest rates this low.
STACK: Perhaps one of the biggest misconceptions on the Wall Street today, because we haven't seen that happen in over 60 years. But it did happen back in the 1930s in two deflationary bear markets. And it happened more recently over in Japan where both stock prices and interest rates were coming down at the same time. It has happened, but just not in a long time here in this country
quote.com
regards,
gary |
