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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading

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To: Ken Adams who wrote (59)	8/29/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Ken Adams	Read Replies (3) of 43080

All... How low is low? I keep tabs on the number of NYSE issues that trade above their 200 day SMA. For the nearly 7 years of history I have on this indicator, Thursday and Friday saw it fall to its lowest level ever. Only 19% of NYSE stocks now trade above the 200d SMA. That means 81% of all stocks are below the average. However, it also may mean the end is in sight for this bear market. In March of 1993, the number above the 200d average was 78%. This began to shrink from that point and fell steadily into late 1994 where it bottomed out at 20%. In early October, 1997 this number reached a record high of 85% and began to fall. It has been an up and down trail since that high, but the overall trend has been down, in spite of rising DJIA prices. Fewer stocks in rising patterns overall, while the blue chips made new highs. The NYSE advance decline line hit its peak on April 9 of this year, trailing the "Over Moving Average" indicator by about 6 months. Cyclically, this bear could last another month, but it's probably time to start watching for some buying opportunities. Comments welcome, Ken

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