Hi Leland, no worries mate. A little flamer sometimes just sneaks out from even kind hearted folks. Who knows why? Although I suspect current world events may test all our humor quotients before things return to steadier ground. Speaking of which . . . .
Wall Street Week last night got a little philosophical and observed that Market Perception had changed as a result of a sudden questioning of the 'twin pillars' underlying the phenomenol bull market. The pillars being the assumption that with the end of the Cold War era, the whole frigging world was going capitalist like madmen and the overall result would be an expansion of wealth the likes of which the world has never seen, and "technology". Unfortunately, they never got back to explaining why the market thought that technological promise was dying on the vine [I think they just looked at the stock prices of the techs and said 'obviously people don't believe anymore], but the first observation was most interesting. It explained why Russia's demise, while economically insignificant in and of itself, seems to have burst the bubble.
That's the problem of course when investor psychology changes from glass half full to glass half empty, you can never tell precisely when or what will inspire the sudden shift.
Not that Russia was alone in causing this week's debacle: evidence has poured in from everywhere reminding us what a fragile hold civilization has on chaos. For me this is the significance of Prez Bill. Like Russia, his conduct per se means zip to me. But at this time in particular, the notion of weak leadership/morally bankrupt leadership hits with particular force as investors everywhere look for some signs of stability somewhere. If not at the oval office, where? The office itself has been besmirched, literally and figuratively. So this was a downright lousy time for Prez Bill to go wandering off the reservation.
I think at times like this history provides some real insight. Even if Right Now looks like a time of unprecedented crisis, take a trip down memory lane: anybody wanna swap with 1962 and the Cuban Missle crisis? Didn't think so. Arab oil embargo? Berlin Wall? Mexican devaluation? Presidents Kennedys? 1968 Democratic Convention in Chicago? Hey folks, this is easy: I could post crises till you all fell asleep, haven't even touched the surface. And without exception the stock market of the time got slammed big time.
For all of you clever enough to have gone to cash before this one hit, my heartiest congratulations. Man, do you all have some buying opportunities out there, yikes talk about the rooster in the hen house.
For the rest of us, time to meditate, quit looking at the quote screens quite so closely, and remember that those who held through all the prior crises came out smelling like roses [if they owned great stocks like the Mighty Q].
Now, where are my golf clubs? Best to all, Mike Doyle |
