Good morning Jeb et al ..
We had warnings since last November ,,but being optismistic in nature,,we still participate in the market,, as a smart day traders ,, there are many ways to skin a cat ,, long and short of it,,
Yes I also do not see that surprise element ,,call it internet information ... or more plain level ,,with MMs.. due to this massive info avaliable on line ..
We also have advance knowledge on Japan,, and China, which is next ,, time wise ,,next week to 2 - 4 months,, yet,, a defined sector will rally as muiltinationals and banking sector will continued to get hit,, I believe,, tech sector is still a value play .. especially internet ,, as indeed they are the future of transfer of technology and commerce,,
Will Nikei hit 11,000 ?
Will the opposition party lock up Diet and force LDP to succumb and go for the general election,,, rather than a speedy economic recovery plan ?
Will Japan risk ostracisation by rest of Asia ,, by starting an avalanche of devaluation after having spent some 20 years to become a de facto economy in the region as per agreement by the G-7 in late 70s ?
Remember ,,Japan's economy now is 30% based in Asia ,, from Korea to Malaysia,,
Let's go for 11,000 scenario,, and leave it there for now,,
Now China,,,
Black market currency traders in back allys of Shang Hai are selling Yuen at 10% discount now .. same thing I saw as a teen in Korea,, precursor to a devaluation,,, analysts working for international banks in China are calling 20% devaluation, in order for China to be competitive with Little Tigers ( Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong ) and ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations,, Malaysia,
Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore) as Japan's yen becomes cheap .. secondary industrial out put nations like Litle Tigers, who emulates Japanese technology and heavy industries,, will have to lower their pricing ,, and will start a chain reaction to Chinese who are also in line for the transfer of technology ,,from Little Tigers,, while maintaining a labour intensive economy ,, will force another tier of positioning for the competitive edge by the ASEAN countries for both cheap labour and same technology ,,
Meanwhile OECD,, (European 11, Canada , US , Japan and Korea ) will lose market for it's exports and will become a consuming nation,, having all the stuff at the Wall Mart at further 30% discount,, again killing their domestic industry ,,
In the past..
NIKE killed converse by going overseas,, all the good shoe companies of US in New England got killed by imports.. Cos like Van Heusen got killed .. if we all remember,, like ZE,, there will be another round US industry killer and lay offs,, like the recent flight to Mexico ,, Macadero factories taking away US industry ,, more slowing of economy,,yet ,, something is happening here,, for first time US unemployment nos are at it's lowest ,, and only this morning a town in Carolinas ?,, declared 0 unemployment for first time in it's history,, so where are these jobs coming from ? From which sector ?
Has US economy now shed the dogma of labour intensive ,, low tech industry and are now in the new growth industry ..such as telecomm, software,, high tech chips,, advanced service sector ,, internet commerce,, etc ? The hurt and lay offs,, and can we be insulated from the global melt down ,,if there is one ?
Will G-7 support Japan and Chinese currencies ,, as they have committed to Russia last Friday ?
Where is the balance in erosion and recovery ,, as I believe once we have reached the bottom ,, there is no where but to go up ,, how much from here is the question we have to answer as we short and long in this market..
I do not think being over bullish or over bearish is the answer,, rather a smart definition of the stock and industry with right judgment call on market sentiment will make us prevail in this times..
Idea is to stay in the game,, as our daily score fluctuates,, as long
as at the end of the year ,,if we are above the average and have gained better than the mutual funds,,cds,, and bonds,, we are ahead,,
as such is the reason why we are here... we are all aggressive investors,,
Let's stay on top and share the information ... |
