David, A quick answer to your questions. I agree that both IDTI and Cyrix seem worlds away from the sweet zone for microprocessors of around 300-350 MHz. AMD is struggling to keep up, and only yesterday announced 350 MHz. My view of that area is Intel's marketing hype has dragged the world into an unnecessary speed race. This little fellow I'm using is a year old, has a 166 MHz Pentium, 512 KB of external(?) cache, a 33.4K baud modem, and is eminently suited for my word processor usage. I get on the Net fast, and my E Mail and Net requirements are executed quickly with very little wait time. I daily read what I want of the NY Times and WSJ on the Net, which keeps my liberal and conservative biases balanced. I can quickly lose all the money I want on the stock market. In spite of my honest endorsement, the market wouldn't even try to sell this machine today.
I don't play games except for the stock market, and believe that only games freaks and anyone doing esoteric number crunching need anything faster. They do, and can justify 3D Now and the rest of it. In a practical sense, both IDTI and Cyrix have Pentium knockoffs that work beautifully at around 200 MHz. Intel, looking to retain its monopoly and "unconscionable profits," Gordon Moore's term, not mine, is doing its best to bankrupt AMD by taking frequencies up to and beyond 450 MHz. In so doing, I think they'll destroy the goose that laid the golden egg, but that remains to be seen. Prices of processors are dropping like feathers in a vacuum, and Intel's margins have to suffer even if they retain the business.
A great sage who lived up your way, H.L. Mencken, once noted it was impossible to underestimate the intelligence of the average man. People know, "Intel Inside," and know 400 and 450 are higher than 300, though they couldn't define a mega Hertz if they faced a firing squad.
I bought IDTI because I liked the degree of diversification they'd undertaken. It's too bad the WinChip didn't make them a billion or so, but it didn't, and most likely is a cash sink right now. Most of the recent investor and analyst speculation was based on WinChip, but that's been wrung out of the stock's price. When the market recovers, as it will, their telecom circuits, FIFOs, specialty SRAMs, and other products will do nicely. The under $600 PC market is hard to read, but IDTI has a chance to be a part of it. Whether or not WinChip2 makes them any money depends on yields, market size, over-all production costs, and lots of factors I haven't had to worry about in years. Toss in Asia and Russia, and you need a psychic rather than an old, beaten-up physicist to forecast the future.
By the way, if IDTI's stock price reaches $4.25, we'll both buy some. I've been patiently waiting for what seems like an eternity, am 60% in cash, and am now afraid to jump in. When do they ring the bell that the bottom has been reached? If you hear it, call me up.
Regards,Sam |
