Well, Joe, keep repeating your 1,700 figure for the bottom, so that when I say 4,000 people won't call me a moron, idiot, etc. I'll direct them to you and you can direct them to Prechter.
A 1,700 bottom would probably imply a lot of dividend suspensions; otherwise you'd have an average yield of around 8% or better on stocks, with many much higher than that. Also, it would imply a huge decline in earnings, or else there would be P/Es of around 5-6 or lower. Finally, it would imply that the market as a whole was selling right at book value. Of course, I did once buy Royal Dutch Petroleum at a P/E of 3 and a yield of about 8%, so it can be done.
I think it would be safer to look for an absolute bottom of 3,500, but whenever you can buy a stock in a well-run company for a P/E of 10 or less and a dividend of 5%, you are probably going to do well. You might have to hold it three or four years.
But let's quit counting all these eggs before they get good and rotten. It's a long way down and a lot of reversals before we get to whatever bottom it may be.
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