David Stein,
It was nice to have discussions with you. To me, it seems you try to do the wrong thing (and you don't want to tell me either. :-)) You have more knowledge in math about economics. But wrong direction may just lead you to nowhere.
Your basic assumption is that the trend is deterministic with a superposition of noise, or a stochastic trend with a deterministic underlying. This might be the fundamental wrong assumptions in western science. If you look at the people walking on the busy street, what you see is chaos, but remember everyone knows where he is going. The basic assumptions could be that the world IS formed based on some very generic deterministic patterns. From biology, market patterns (especially Elliot wave theory), and most important from the ancient Chinese Yi code (what is where the Yin and Yang, binary came from) They all hinted me a generic pattern.
So, I coded this pattern, parameterized it with noise and superpositioned them. I thought I got the secret patten chart that could solve all the problems in the world. It looked very strange.
Upon I applied it to the markets I realized there was one thing missing. The world is not quite 3D and I solved the 2D problem (maybe, who knows). The third is the not-quite-random event that will shape the pattern and the new pattern will move to a new maximum entropy point if no new impacts come in....
But, through this excise, I learned much more about the markets. Now, I understand where and what to look (hopefully). :-) |
