Telecom Companies Should Grab IP Brass Ring, Survey Says
soundingboardmag.com
By Carol L. Bowers
Telecom and data communications managers at
Fortune 1000 companies believe that Internet
protocol (IP)-based voice traffic, at 1 percent today,
will jump to 33 percent by 2005, according to a
survey by California-based Killen & Associates Inc.
(www.killen.com).
"We were somewhat surprised that the people who
responded were as bullish as they were about the
rapid growth from convergence to IP," says Bob
Goodwin of Killen & Associates. He says that in
approaching the survey, Killen staff members
believed there would be a "significant" swing, but not
to the degree predicted by telecom and datacom
managers.
"This was a surprise to us because we started off
predicting growth of 12 percent to 18 percent over a
five-year period, but some of these people are
talking double that," Goodwin says. He warns,
however, that it is only a survey response, but says it
still is an important gauge "of the optimistic view
technology managers are taking of the promise of
this new technology."
Specifically, the 160-page study, to be released in
September, focused on the retail, manufacturing and
insurance industries. Respondents predicted overall
that 18 percent of voice traffic will be IP-based by
2002. Insurance company telecom and data
managers were even more optimistic than their
counterparts in manufacturing and retail, estimating
that 26 percent of their voice traffic would be
IP-based by 2002 and 48 percent in 2005.
Goodwin says the high percentage is a reflection of
cost pressures in any industry that relies so heavily
on telecommunications, and with wider distribution
networks, IP-based voice could save companies a
great deal of money.
"What the industry is saying here is significant.
They're talking about a cost reduction capability
which can over time equal productivity
improvement," Goodwin says. "Anybody who is in a
competitive business needs to look carefully at how
this IP technology can help their business."
As for telcos, Goodwin says, they'd better hurry to
offer the service.
"It's both an opportunity and a risk for them," he
says. "In a way it's like eating your own children, but
if they don't offer IP telephony service, some one
else is going to take away their traffic."
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