Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: wooden ships who wrote (7339)	8/30/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: DD™	Read Replies (2) of 42834

TB: Cogent, yet articulate post as always. I too noticed a hint of reticence in Commander Bob's voice today. He seemed to be blindsided by the activities on the markets this past week, if only in vocal tone. I feel, at this juncture, that the one thing that he is overlooking is the ability of corporate America to generate sustainable earnings growth going forward in a no-growth, perhaps deflationary environment. To say that one should overlook the possibility of a bear market during declining interest rates may, in hindsight, be the Achilles heel in Brinkers timing model. If I can recall, the period in which the A/D line began deteriorating (April) was about the same time that S&P earnings growth was projected to fall from a robust 13% to 1-2%. It was at that time that the institutional managers began lightening their holdings of common stocks, and the "buy the dops" mentality slowly disappeared. Regards, DD

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