Personally, I have seen absolutely nothing that indicates that Visio's current or future earnings prospects have changed significantly. Despite this bizarre fleeing to big-cap multinational stocks (exactly the ones who might be affected by an international slowdown), I see nothing significant on Visio's front.
They will still be earnings ~0.30/share this quarter, and approx $1.60 in 1999. Their growth will still be driven by expanding product line, increasing margins, and increased market penetration.
If I had more cash for the market now, it would likely go into Visio and stocks like it. Just my opinion, of course.
There could be some bad news coming, but honestly, this downturn for Visio began over a month ago, so I wonder whether people were just very prescient, or if there is no specific bad news, just a lot of market related issues.
Also, what should the company say, "Visio officially announces bafflement at the current stock price. 'We just don't get it," quotes the CEO. 'We're still doing the same things we were two months ago.' "
Honestly, I don't need Visio to make stupid comments like these. I want Visio to keep selling and developing product, making good acquisitions, and growing their earnings at 5x the average S&P company.
I've seen Visio stock dip like this a few times over the past few years (50-60%). Fact is, if the company keeps delivering, the stock will recover.
Maybe there are people out there who time when to buy and sell Visio. These are better people than me. I buy when it's cheap, and I don't plan on selling anymore. I sold a bit at 43, but I regretted it as I reviewed the financials, so I bought it back and more at 36.
I don't expect the market to recover for a while, but I don't expect 7 years of famine either. I won't be surprised if Visio finishes 1998 above 40. Then again, the longer it is low, the more chance I have to buy. |
