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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (468)8/30/1998 3:23:00 AM
From: marc ultra  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
re":situation begs for clarification." I guess the situation is we are considerably beyond the 10% correction Bob was looking for due in his and a lot of other's view that things have been exacerbated by world events beyond what would be expected by fundamentals as indicated by the timing model. Since things have deteriorated beyond what he was predicting and his model obviously sees nothing that would suggest we should be in or entering a bear market I'm not sure what he could say at this point other than as far as he can tell we are still in a bull market and in his off presidential election year that should produce a great buying opportunity. After calling an all out buy under 8650 it would be a little silly to say now this should be a really really really good buy. Yes it is disturbing that some of these great buying opportunities in the past he talked about came after more severe downturns and in truth we can't say for sure where the hell we are exactly in terms of the bottom. It would be interesting to know if he was stepping up to the plate again Monday morning if we get a weak opening but I think we face a tough decision whether to e.g. dump some fixed income money into equities in a hope to faster make up some of the big losses faced recently or play this from a more defensive posture. I was wondering whether to dump Global Communications and stick the money elsewhere. While this will generate a capital gain I expect this to have a gargantuan capital gains distribution at the end of the year and it may not be the greatest place to be in the near term

Marc
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