HI IKE
Well i had to laugh at that article...Ike I live in Phila, and travel the New Jersey Turnpike each & every week on the way to Conneticut...what a coincidence??? huh???
Of course it was a great analogy as to what's going on in these markets... I mean Ike, I & everyone else know your a long term investor, always the optimist<g>, always in the "BULL" camp...:>}...
BUT!!! ah yes, you knew there was going to be a but???? right???
Here's my question to you & all others now in this market as of this minute...
are we better off today than 1 year ago??? is the next 6-12 months going to be better than the last 6-12???
how much money do each of us have since Jan 1, 1998, at the beginning of the year????
how much profit is everyone looking at right now!!!
how much losses have ocurred to each of us over the last 2-3 months, and can we sustain additional losses thru year end...
In other words My Friend from abroad are the people here on SI able to assess with true honesty their respective goals, where they are monetarily right now, and should they continue to buy-buy-buy, or cash out and wait for a less volitile market...
has everyone thought of their individual situations with capital gains & losses???? should they sell their dogs that will become dogs with fleas before the end of the year???? should they also sell their profitable stocks to off set those gains??? and rest & refresh??? remember folks, the stock price of your winners today maybe a lot less before the end of the year...so if you HAVE profits it might be an ideal time to take them...
the markets will be here each & every day for the rest of our lives, we can come back and trade another day, right??? I say re-assess each position with the following thoughts in mind...
The New York Times Sat. edition, said fully 1/3 of all the world's countries are now in recession, with another 1/3rd heading in that direction...With Asia, in the worse shape, Japan sitting on it's hands, Hong Kong Gov. trying to prop stock prices, ha ha, what's going to happen when they STOP!!!, Latin America in a shambles, talking about slow growth and devaluation of their respective currencies, Russia in the toilet altogether, and NOW, Mexico, who's peso is at precarious levels, and Canada whose in the same boat, are in perilous situations, and these countries are close to HOME, our regular trading partners...
With Consumer confidence falling 2 straight months in a row, and NOW for the first time in 5 years consumer SPENDING(remember my post last week IKE?) fell off last month, the economy here in the good ole'USA slowing each and every month, with pricing presures to corps, wage inflation rising each time it's reported, and shrinking profit margins already in eveidence, I SAY STOP, LOOK, LISTEN, AND REGROUP RIGHT NOW!!!!!!!!!EVERYBODY...
I did not say get out of the market IKE for nimble traders like you and others...IKE i swear, some of your sophisticated straegies have me completely spinning around<g>...I can't trade like you!!! I use the KISS method Ike...buy puts/ buy calls/ buy/sell stock PERIOD...I'm just not that smart????<gggg>...
Look my friend, sure most people will stay fully invested, hey the skies not falling YET!!!, and I fully believe we could head ourselves into recession by late 99-2000, a real possibility IKE...
Of course the FED will be accomodating, the inflation numbers are tame, interest rates are going lower without a doubt...BUT there are major problems out there even with commodity prices falling thru the bottom...OIL??? incredibley cheap, IKE it's mindboggling how we continue to see all these indicators head in different directions, and yet there is real unstable conditions out there...
I simply say preserve capital...at ALL COSTS....falling knives are about to happen, and have happened to a lot of seasoned traders holding long positions as we speak...earnings seasons is upon us...lookout for reduced eps, and warnings about the next 2 quarters...
I know we will have a major technical rally, probably 50% retracement shortly...I say SELL into that rally and call it a day for a while till things settle....
As you know this is JMO...it's one of many...but people can't go on lossing large amounts of money, and still be able to reap the future rewards of the next 5-10 years of wonderful growth and stability...
Right now, that is NOT the case.......
With My Warmest Regards, Jerry |
