(Paul's Topic) Will This Game of Chicken End In Depression??
I am not an economist, but having worked in or been involved with the markets all my life I can tell you that what we have on our hands is a classic Global economic/social game of chicken. Let's try to unravel the essence of what I think is going on from Asia, China, Russia, Brazil and beyond.
Smart people - no pun - the world over are beginning to understand the impact of this "new economy" model we are experiencing. All businesses have to plan on driving productivity-based profits to the bottom line or they will die. Why? Because competitors who are open to seeking out productivity solutions fueled by advances in technology will win out. Their profit margins will be sustained even in the face of declining prices.
What does this all mean? It means we have this massive, world-wide arbitrage between open and closed approaches to business and living: Companies and individuals that seek to hold onto their energy-taking command control method of managing and maintaining power will be leveled by competitors who are "open being open" - thus able to empower their employees to find ways to leverage new ideas and technology which expand the value of their company enterprise. "Givers" will arbitrage "takers" out of existence.
Idealistic nonsense? If you agree then you are simply saying corruption is "the way to go." Now extend that argument to its logical conclusion and you will stare straight smack into the picture of Russia's plight today. Facile? Check out Saddam's grip on power. Where's the upside? Touch base with any number of fanatical lunatics in power the world over and you will see dying, crumbling economies in their wake.
What's the impact of all this? For starters, a long-term secular trend toward deflation is here to stay. The chicken littles of the world will have you believe we are all headed to hell in a handbasket, but these same people do not understand the power and energy that's being unleashed worldwide as this cheap bandwidth-fueled digital, Global Network, IP datagram packet-fired entrepreneurial Tsunami sweeps the globe.
Even in the face of this "darkness" out there, freedom is alive and well. But don't look to our politicians for leadership. Just listen. Check underneath the hood of this great country of ours. Right beneath the surface we have a powerful and growing sense of shared energy that's being passed by those who see the world-wide benefits of CONNECTING people with one another on a vision of openness, giving and shared faith in the power of the individual that CAN make a difference. The Internet is demonstrating this every day. The spiritual truism, give and you will receive more, IS the essence of the Internet. And despite our problems with Clinton, I think we should give ourselves more credit for leading the world into this "new age". But before I get into that, let's examine what I think is the essence of what's going on out there.
The current problem we are facing is that world political leadership is politically and morally bankrupt. Can this, quickly and simply lead to the next step being bantied about? That is, the bad guys to fill this vacuum and take over?
You can almost hear the terrorists confirm their age-old belief that as an evil nation, the United States IS the source of much of the world's problems. Now that we have a President who's admitted to being a liar, the bad guys - living in countries under the weight of poverty; experiencing political and social oppression (see Iraq et. Al) - have more validation for what they have been thinking all along: the United States is a corrupt, evil, empire. "A confessed liar is running the US." Well so what, you say.. This is very important for the negative mantra of the terrorist mind is being fanned throughout the world right now. From this argument, it's easy for these bad guys to target the entire block of the free western world. Conspiracy fires are fanned into a frenzy and, overnight, we have an egotistical, power hungry, mad mob that feels entirely justified in its aim to kill .
So we bomb some suspected terrorist outposts and expect to have sent a message. So what!! Since we do not have a President with the moral respect to lead the collective causes of freedom in this world - there is this vacuum of freedom and justice that cannot be filled
Are we witnessing the death and defeat of freedom and truth?
The loaded questions are:
Will inaction and disarray will reign?
Will the terrorists exploit this opening to our peril and their gain??
Is entrepreneurialism and capitalism totally discredited on the world stage?
Have examples of corruption and political centrism made a laughingstock of the forces of freedom?
Are we at a point where faith and spirit get utterly destroyed?
Should we all simply throw in our cards - sell - sell - sell - and head to the wailing wall and being wailing?
Will evil triumph over good?
Is life simply a cruel joke?
Well, we are at the point where it is painfully obvious that the "forces of freedom" must organize a quick and powerful response to stop what could begin to unravel into becoming a global economic black hole. If the world's leaders do not come together on this, those exercising and promoting the base political instincts that blame freedom, capitalism and the markets for their woes will win the upper hand.
Ok allow me to shift gears somewhat.
I can tell you one thing, we may have an enonomic technology miracle working beneath the surface of this great country of ours, but thanks to President Clinton, the United States left the world stage a long time ago. More concerned for HIS future than that of our nation, 4 years ago he embarked on a plan to selfishly regain power in the basest of political ways - breaking laws, doing whatever he had to do to get the payoffs he needed to get re-elected. Call me stupid and partisan, but I firmly believe that while he was illegally raising money in Asia, having his affair with Monica, fixing HIS game in HIS way, Clinton left the world stage for others to occupy.
Even against the forces of technology-based freedom underpinning mankind's move to this "new economy".years from now, historians will examine this era as one that was defined by the rise of corruption throughout the world. I sincerely believe this is at the heart of our problems. When you have a President that willingly organizes an operation that illegally funnels foreign money - much of it sourced right to the heart of corrupt fixed regimes - for the sake of getting re-elected, then we also have this flipside that acknowledges that some, part or all of Asian excess can be sopped up by the IMF. The seeds for Asia's fallout were set with Clinton's internal bargain when he went shopping for money in '95-96. Asian leaders knew their economic "game" was extended and they needed the guarantee that there would be an initial money rope they could count on to bail them out.
Even as I write this, I must be careful and WILL withhold final judgement. But this is simply my gut feel. We will need another independent counsel unravel the mess and find the truth.
So there we have it. The forces of darkness are playing chicken with the forces of light and openness. Fixed, corrupt regimes and companies know implicitly their days are numbered, but there's this last gasp dance with corruption and flouting of the truth that needs to be played out.
Ok, now for the sequeway back to the Bigger Picture..
These problems are the result of failed, closed approaches that are holding out one last time in a vain attempt to hold onto power. Call me na‹ve, but it's not the economy: it's the intent, stupid. For the first time in world history we have this global plane of freedom, information and intelligence that's exposing good vs. bad, open vs. closed, corrupt vs. clean ways of conducting business and living.
Enterprise pyramids everywhere are at tremendous risk for being blown away - leveled by faster, quicker and more focused companies that are empowering their employees to tap into the energy of what the customer really wants vs. what the higher-ups think they can con the customer into buying, etc. You cannot "push" product into the market anymore. Customers are in the driver's seat like at no other time in history. And those companies that humble themselves into the position of NOT SELLING, but SERVING others will win out.
Is this the death of SELLING as we know it? My guess is, yes! People are too smart, too cynical, too informed to take the BS dished out from ads, movies, billboards, etc. BRAND power will fade. It's the customer, stupid.
Thanks to the Internet, the next wave of growth will be a powerful rise in the influence of individuals, referrals, relationships and network marketing as a primary channels that will shape the future distribution of goods and services. The whole "new" game of sharing and helping will be directed toward this smarll "envelope of trust" that occupies sanctified, delicate and rare zone between buyers and sellers of products and services. RECONNECTING people with one another will be create new energy that defines this "zone" more specifically. The work of individuals seeking to occupy this zone as they reconnect with one another fuel a growth wave that will pull the factoring, buying and selling of goods and services in its wake.
And no, we aren't all going the A-way. This trend will be much deeper. Right smack into the neighborhood - where people will begin to get to know one another again Why? Because we need each other. We can no longer live out the BS the ad agencies have sold us that "we can do it all!!". It's time to slow down and get to know one another again. This shift will create a rebirth in a lot of great areas of our society and the world in general.
But back to companies, the vast majority pay lipservice to wanting what's best for their customer while believing they "own" their customers. Customers are there to be measured, tracked, tweaked, bought and sold all the way to the bank. The ad agencies have sold this mantra since the birth of advertising. Well, advertising as we know will be forced to change. All the big agencies are scrambling, dividing, and reinventing themselves to try to keep in touch with this trend. This, while consumers are making a mad dash for the exits and just want to be left alone. Nobody wants to be "sold anymore". This next wave will be defined by a new group of innovative companies and people who are attuned to what really matters: serving and helping others.
Shift to Novell..
Novell is right smack in the middle of this rebirth in openness and empowerment. Gates has benefited from this, but he is now smack against it. Why? Because he wants to control it.
You cannot control the forces of freedom. All you can do is subjugate these forces for selfish purposes. That's been the story of mankind.
Excuse the longwind everyone. When I write, its simply an example of an act of sharing. Read it or toss it. I am not out to grind an ax or create an agenda for any selfish purpose. If you think that's my motivation, then I am sorry.
As for you, Paul....all I can say is relax.. Chicken little is a nice bird. Give him a cracker. |
