Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 319.51

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Jan 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (23589)	8/30/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Gene--If one goes back into history, one will find many times we had low inflation and low interest rates right near the top of a major correction. The low inflation/low rates thesis is old news and one that Everyone knows. Its predictive power is therefore ziltch. AJC is a bull market icon, She was passed the torch from Elaine who got it from Prechter etc etc. At THE top she will by definition still be bullish because the so called fundamentals still are good. That's what makes a top. If the fundies didn't look good there wouldn't be trend following bulls still buying. A little man doesn't come out and ring his bell and say attention Kmart shoppers the bull is dead and today was the top so all you good bulls please sell now. ----and when a Primary Bull Market changes to a Primary Bear Market , the character of the market will act differently and AJC will be seen to have passed the torch to someone else. --likely near the bottom when AJC may by then be able to see the then current news etc as supporting the idea that 'gee things don't look so hot' ---Bottom line, paying strictly attention to U.S. fundamentals and today's results and news can be precarious to one's health at or around the time that a Primary Bull Market has changed to a Primary Bear Market. As they say, the Bear's mission is to have the elevator stuffed with as many people as possible who are near fully invested when the bear takes it down. That's why the Bear wants you in that elevator.. It is noteworthy imo that the SP500 is now below its 200 dma for the first time since 1994 and a Dow Theory Sell signal is now in place and the character of the market has changed. Quite apart from Elliott Wave, this is signalling that the risks are high that a Primary Bear Market in the major averages is now in place. It is also interesting that according to Richard Russell, ALL previous Priamry Bear Markets retraced at least half of the previous Primary Bull Market-which in the DJ;s case stated way back in either 1974 at 570ish or 1982 in the 750ish area.

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