Yes, I do believe it's possible Mory would turn down a 72 offer from ERICY. For one thing, who knows what goes on behind closed doors, and in fact LU may have given Mory a better price already.
Hello bucky89, call me naive, but with absolutely no indication from the press, analysts, industry, etc., I refuse to believe some Motley poster has true inside info that likely only 2 or 3 three people from each company might be privy to. Lets at least agree the $72 offer was pure fabrication.
Also, given the risk involved to LU shareholders, I think its highly unlikely ASND and LU have even discussed a merger recently. If its gonna happen (which is by no measnd definite), it will play out after 10/1. If LU truly wants ASND, and their hand is forced before then, they will respond quickly. But at this point, they will continue to be patient, assuming they really covet ASND.
Mory has several million shares of ASND, and it's going to take him a good many years to sell off those shares even if ASND becomes part of a larger entity. He has a strong interest to make sure ASND falls into the right hands, and becomes part of a player that can take on Cisco.
I think Mory's shares currently are largely in the form of options. In fact it appears that he currently "holds" very little stock. But you are right that he certainly has a vested interest in any potential ASND suitor. One issue that will have to be dealt with if LU acquires ASND is what place Mory will take in the management structure. If I recall, the Yurie top dog was given some lofty position/title, and in fact may have significant influence at this point. Just a thought.
Thirdly, remember that Mory knows how this quarter is going, and if in fact the quarter is going to be a blockbuster (which many rumors seem to be indicating), we may see ASND easily in the 60's in October. In this light, 72 may not be such a good deal. Lastly, the rumor seems outrageous enough that someone probably didn't just make it up out of thin air, and there may be some basis behind it.
I wish I was as certain about this being a blowout quarter. If I had to guess, I would say .31 or .32, right in line with estimates. At this point, I don't see blowout. No upward guidance, no major new wins early in the quarter that could generate quick new revenue, tough Asian environment, tough German market. I think all these things point to an in-line quarter (hopefully).
And finally, I guess you are the optimist and I am the pessimist (my wife always tells me this, too). I view a wild-ass rumor as just that. Someone simply starting a rumor.
I believe LU is the only potential acquirer of ASND who may have a good fighting chance to take on Cisco.
LU, NT, ERICY, NOKA, ALA, and NEC will all be major players, the big-dogs. Don't underestimate NT, they will be very significant.
Yes, Mory might be pissed at LU's boneheaded acquisitions of Livingston, Yurie, and Prominet. But I believe the LU execs now are realizing that this strategy is a big mistake, and they will ante up for ASND.
I don't think enough time has passed to judge these acquisitions yet. Certainly, Livingston was a significant player in the low to mid ISP arena. But this was before the PM4. With LU behind the PM4, they may be able to penetrate the high end ISP and carrier market (remember, that the RBOC's, long time LU customers, are pushing hard as the new generation ISPs).
Yurie was and is the leader in ATM access concentrators. Ahead of ASND (SA), and CSCO, and NT. Remember, these aren't switches. They boxes "front-end" the switch and get legacy traffic ready for the network. A cost effective way to increase port density, which is at a premium in the switch itself.
And Prominet, had a well regarded IP switch that became that new LU PacketStar IP switch line. Still way too early to tell if this was a good move on LU's part.
As far as CSCO, their routers may be tough to configure (probably an understatement), but they are the 800 lb. gorilla when it comes to IP. No seems to trust anyone else, rightly or wrongly. Even ASND has been able to break their stranglehold in the market for routing and switching (IP, that is).
And lastly, remember that the Lightstream deal was done when CSCO couldn't spell ATM (sorry, couldn't resist). Lightstream provided LAN workgroup ATM switches (pure ATM,no multiservice). At the time of this merger, CSCO needed an ATM story, and it still wasn't clear that ATM would lose to Fast Ethernet in the LAN. These products compete with FORE LAN based ATM products for those enterprise customers that bought into the LAN ATM story early on.
Stratacom provided the multiservice and core ATM piece, and well as a strong frame relay switch, none of which Lightstream had. Of course, it seems that Stratacom may have missed a product cycle (or 2), but they now seem ready to compete with ASND again. Remember that before any of these mergers, that Stratacom was the clear industry leader in both frame relay switching and the then nascient market for 1st generation WAN ATM switches.
gary |
