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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Rob Shilling who wrote (575)8/30/1998 1:13:00 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
Rob, it is extremely unlikely, IMO, that Russia will go back to
communism. Also, although there is unrest, it needs a leader which
communists are not able to provide. The most powerful are the ones
with $$ - they were responsible for Kiriyenko dismissal. They will
also determine who will be the next president. It is very unlikely
the next president will roll back reforms. With the commodities
at decade low or more, I think Russia should prove to be a very good
long-term play. Russian blue chips are selling in many cases at
a fraction of book and earnings. However, short to medium term,
down is very likely, not just down, but down a lot. US does not
look good - closed below 200 DMA (DOW). So this world-wide bear has
yet to go around the globe. Valuations don't justify being short
Russia (above 40% dividend in TNT!?). But there are many
opportunities elsewhere. One only should invest in Russia what one is
ready to write off. There is also significant risk of
shareholder rights violations. You can enjoy the ride down
here in the US. It's just starting. Latin America also caught the
fire. Since there is a lot of talk that it is immune to currency
turmoil, it's not over there yet as well. In Asia (Japan and Korea)
and Russia one could go bargain-hunting for a long term (10-year)
horizon.
-Vi
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