Whether you should bail or not... I'm not making reccomendations, but my sense (my hope) is that you've held through the worst, and that it should get better. If they make their numbers this quarter, that should give the stock a boost -- it seems to respond nicely to good news. As to the response to bad news-- we've seen that.
If you sell and SGI has good news in Jan. I think you'll wish you had waited. I don't see the sort of charges in this quarter that SGI had last. There weren't any large aquisitions this quarter or last. There aren't the kind of "does your R10K crash all the time too??" posts on the newsgroups that there were at the end of last summer. I read a lot of "I got an O2 and love it" or "I bought a Pentium before I heard the O2 was coming out, and boy I wish I gotten the O2 instead".
Also SGI seems (from the press releases) to be selling a decent numbers of Origin 2000 systems. They already show up as the 211, 212, 213, 270, 459, 460 on the the "Top 500" computers in the world (and that's only using 16-32 processors at a time). With the 128 processor version of LINPACK (the benchmark used), they should rank in the top 50-75. Also, there are a couple of large installations that aren't even on the list (<= 64 processor systems).
netlib.org
Note the Cray T3E's 11, 12, 13, 24, 33-36, 68-72, 84, 173, 206, 315-321 on the list. Cray is apparently shipping these a quickly as they can build them.
One other item. SGI was criticised by many for NOT going to NT. Looks like they were ahead of their time as NEC, IBM, Motorola, and Group Bull have all abandoned the NT on RISC strategy. It was a loser, and SGI avoided it. Now they have to coexist with NT-on-Intel but NT isn't a compelling story for RISC, and has gone back to being a sole source proposition. (Yes I am ignoring DEC, shouldn't I be?)
Personally I'm long and buying more.
Speaking for myself only. |
