What people don't understand today is: the market is going down while interest rates and unemployment are low. They are struggling with the fact that other market corrections and crashes in our lifetime have mostly been from increasing interest rates. So, there's still a lot of bulls out there buying on the dips. People don't understand deflation. But, before the the stock market crash of 1929 and the great depression, interest rates and unemployment were low and we were in the roaring 20's. So, no one can relate to what happened back then very well because they didn't live through it, and people today have been screaming buy, buy, buy. In my opinion, the banks are the key, just like they were back then. And, what we heard last week from some banks talking about losing 200 to 500 million dollars from Russia alone in the next qtr. puts up a red flag, caution needed, something is going on here that we have never seen. Watch the banks.
Tomorrow may very well be a down day. If you look at the charts for the NYSE and compare the last few days with the days leading up to the crash last Oct., you can see a similar pattern of increasing volume and decreasing market. I don't think we hit bottom yet, it may come tomorrow, no matter how obvious that may seem to some. There isn't any news out there to look forward to except bad news. Who knows what will go wrong next. Greenspan says he wouldn't own stocks here, some funds are dumping stocks, Clinton fiasco, Asia, Russia, Yeltsin fiasco, Latin America, Canada, terrorists looming in the corners, Iraq, Ritter quit the UN inspection team since he knows what Saddam is up to and the fact that the US gave up on it, China, Hong Kong, India and Pakistan testing nukes, Y2K, banks in trouble, Barrons article on more market downside. People will think about these things this weekend. Tomorrow???????? |
