Hi East Pole, Interesting as the VP of Schlumberger just left our home after having brunch this morning...and can you guess what my questions to him were????
What his thoughts on oil and the oil service sector were for the near future and beyond... If you look up SLB which is thier ticker and look at the chart during the same time, you'll note a similar drop though not straight down...much larger company...but similar lose in stock value 50% or greater in 3 months....
Now on to his thoughts...the outlook for oil prices during the next 3 to 5 years, $10-$15 per barrel...not what we want to hear for oil companies and Oil Service companies, will fare better due to being able to react faster in cutting cost..ie laying off work force ect...
Thinks that the companies that can cut cost and have the lowest debt, will make out the best...3rd qt will be bad but 4th qt starting to pick back up.
Thus we look for the service companies, with low debt who have leases on equipment and can trim workforce numbers to get to the bottom line numbers that the analyst are looking for...
And of course, we would like the sector to turn back into X's///
Posed the question, what if Russia were to sell the oilfields to pay for financing thier debt problem...thier infrastructure is so bad, that unlike the middle Eastern countries that just turn up the flow,,,
Russia has a hard time even keeping the pipelines and equipment operating that they have now, let alone trying to increase output...
Thus I for one would not be playing on the Oil or Oil Service sectors
until the indicators go positive, and then very carefully...
Just my thoughts
As to PGO, that a long tail 37 plus down boxes...but the sectors in the toilet...Be Careful...
Later
Preston |
