Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): contrarian investing Message Board

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Pastimes : Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX): contrarian investing

BEARX 4.100

-1.0%

Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: Michael Berkel who wrote (323)	8/30/1998 4:51:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) of 793

BEARX was rated by Barron's as the best-performing mutual fund of the week (out of thousands). Unfortunately such glory tends to vanish in a great hurry, and in an up market the trip to the outhouse from the penthouse is very rapid, to borrow a phrase from another Barron's story. I was reading in Galbraith's "The Great Crash" for the tenth time this year; in 1929 the first real damage came quite soon after the ultimate peak. Since we are in a bull market that has in some respects gone on twice as long, lor more, than the one of the 1920s, and since much else is different from that time, the unwinding is bound to be different. But if in fact the peak was in July we may see something like a snowboard down the Matterhorn. With money supply decelerating, I don't know where the cash or credit is going to come from to keep the bubble inflated. Foreign buying must be about exhausted. But, of course, my bearish views are bound to be blinkered and self-reinforcing. I can't see the woods for the falling trees.

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