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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: bobby beara who wrote (25720)8/30/1998 5:19:00 PM
From: Daniel Ray  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Brilliant Technical Analysis guys! Thanks!

I personally have no idea which way this durn thing is going. . . .

I do know that the '29 crash foreshadowed depression and war.

I know that the '66 - '82 period reflected rising interest rates and inflation, and the first major military defeat of the U.S. in its history.

If the U.S. and European markets do indeed 'crash' from here, what will this foreshadow?

This Russian biz has got the markets worried more than the 'Asian contagion' ever did. It's because if things really collapse over there a Hitler-type figure will emerge and he'll have ICBMs (hint: not a Nasdaq stock!)

I tend to be an optimist and think the situation will stabilize and with it the markets. It is the stock and bond brokers who profit most from turbulance, as people sell and buy and sell again. Lots of taxable events for the man too.

Asia 'collapsed' after years of 20% growth . . . I've had investments there for years and they have still given a nice total return over time. It would have been better to liquidate two years ago and buy back now . . . but hindsight is always perfect, giving the illusion that perfect foresight is possible too. On the whole both Asia and Russia are signifigantly more attractive right now than they were ten years ago, on many different levels. But like I said, I'm an optimist and don't think the sky is falling.

We will all find out soon enough how the next chapter unfolds.

Good luck all
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