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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread

DELL 119.41

-2.7%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Bilow who wrote (1735)	8/30/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: divvie	Read Replies (1) of 2578

I tried to introduce MSFT's role in this to you but probably didn't make myself clear. PC hardware becomes simpler and cheaper but Windows does not. We will not see PCs as commodities until they are as easy to operate as a TV (remeber, my mother has to be able to use this thing). The vast majority of people on this planet will need tech support and $100-$300 box makers will not be able to do this. Eventually someone (and I bet you it's someone out of PARC) will come out with the killer OS that is nothing like that which we know today and set top boxes or wearable computers will become cheap (read impulse buys) and will proliferate. Where does this leave DELL? Well MSFT is doing all the PC makers a favour by trying to take on IBM and SUNW in the enterprise arena. Everyone is predicting the NT's domination in the next few years, but for now and the near future NT requires a lot of hardware to scale up sufficiently to run large databases and applications on. A lot of companies are finding that NT (and SQL server) is simply not scalable enough to cope with terabyte data warehouses for example. However, they are not betting against MSFT. As I said, you need a lot of servers to scale NT. Wolfpack (MSFT's 2 node clustering solution) is late but will further NT's march into the enterprise. With 2 node clustering you will need a primary domain controller (one box) a back up domain controller (2nd box) and then the main application server. Then double that for 2 nodes. MSFT plan to bring out 16 node clustering (think of all those $10,000 - $80,000 servers - yes they do cost that much) some time in the next century. so what's my point? You're right about the consumer market, but the enterprise is os much bigger. DELL is continuing to make inroads into the server market. MSFT is helping all PC Server manufactures by its inability to understand that making NT more and more complex by trying to compete with MVS and Unix means higher hardware and support costs for all involved. That is where the money is. I would greatly appreciate your thoughts on this.

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