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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (25740)8/30/1998 10:48:00 PM
From: Vitas  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
>>> The corrections you refer to were atypical and now are typical?<<<

There is a big difference between spotting the end of a correction within a bull market cycle (of the four year cycle variety - nothing to do with the larger bull cycle from 1974 or 1982)and trying to identify the end of the four year cyclical bear phase.

Have to use different rules and realize that you are looking for something quite different.

Look at how the 84, 87, 90 and 94 bear markets ended for clues as to what we should be looking for, in terms of a solid rally, end of bear market, beginning of the next 4 year bull cycle phase.

Bear market rallies can occur at any time. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick - and we are within the 55 calendar day Bermuda triangle -crash- window. Is it worth the risk?

I don't think we are going to get the big crash (BWDIK), but we could certainly get further big corrections. We don't need to be trepidatious every time we reach a high and start the 55 day count.

But we are now definitely in a corrective phase. The summo is well under 0. We are potentially vulnerable. This is no time to be a hero. Don't tug on Superman's cape. Etc.

When the end of the correction phase comes, there will be a bottom, and then at least one retest. Plenty of time.

Vitas

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