I think Alcatel wants to be what Motorola was trying to be last year -- the main supplier of DMT chips and technology, as well as an end-to-end provider. Alcatel appears to be buying its way in. The JPC deal reportedly was done for $322 per line END-to-END...amazingly low price point for a full system. Pricing for chips is reportedly equally as aggressive. However, we hear from lots of people that Alcatel is going to have a problem making its delivery time frames, and that it is looking for options. The Ascend deal could very well be a way to get DMT earlier than its own development, without having to do a direct deal for DMT with another provider (major loss of face there if true). All supposition on my part, but a lot of talk to substantiate it on the streets. If so, that could mean some substantial sales for Aware/ADI. Of course, this is dependent on Ascend hitting its March timeframe, which some feel is aggressive due to Ascend's lack of experience with xDSL. March will tell us.
As for BA dropping CAWS, I cannot figure those guys out -- they are going 'round and 'round. They are now back to talking about fiber being the major way of getting to the customer, and all they are deploying next year is Philadelphia. The DSS (DirectTV/Dish) distribution costs have certainly put a damper on any facilities-intensive VoD deployments, and so I think the move is more reflective of the fact that the business case just no longer plays out but for a full service network optoin down the road when other applications help prove it in. I do not take it as a vote for ADSL in BA territory.
I think it is the same for the telcos at large, the business case for video is all screwed up with the fight going on for DSS subscribers, and MCI coming in next year. At $2.99 a movie and cheap distribution costs, there probably is just not a lot of room for more players in just a VoD market. I personally think VoD is just taking a back seat to Internet/Intranet business services and other high bandwidth drivers. There is still a trend towards it, but the pressure for balls to the wall seems to be gone.
Do you disagree? |
