Denice, put a big sign above the couch saying "It is a Bear Market", every time you see a rally emerging (particularly early in the day) think about being suckered by a big vacuum machine.
Frankly, I the "oversold indicators have not been that bad for a long time, but in a bear market you stay oversold for a long time, and rallies are just relief rallies and very dangerous. I still hold that we have not seen the worst and that there is no major support until we get to 7200 region (last October we spiked about 200 points below that). This bear may be short (like the major decline in 1987 was) but it may take quite sometime to recover. Remember that November and early December will be "set up" for "tax loss" selling as well, so opportunities to get back in, if at all, would be ample, IMHO.
I would stay out at least until late October and than look back and see how much damage was inflicted. I tried to be smart last Thursday and Friday, but I covered most of these bets at a loss early today.
Zeev |
