Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.550

+2.8%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: CuttotheCore who wrote (7306)	8/31/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (2) of 22640

Mr. Keeling, I've read the same info about the Sept/Oct period. My question to you. If everyone has the same thought (and has had the same thought about the 9-10/98 period since let's say 10/97 and certainly since the US market breakdown starting in mid-7/98), the market would anticipate it (i.e., heavy put buying with large premiums) and would lessen the possibility that a large decline from here would occur. This basic contrarian theory is just one indicator and doesn't always work, especially in combination with worldwide panic and stupid govt moves in Hong Kong, various Asian countries (last year mostly) and Russia. Will everyone stay in bonds, cash and money market funds from Sept. 1st until Nov. 1st? If so, the global equities markets are in big, big trouble and Greenspan will have to lower IRs $.25-.50 at the next meeting (if that would do any good and not just increase the sense of panic). Fascinating times.

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