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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Moonray who wrote (14665)	8/31/1998 3:34:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 25814

Back on another computer... (Moonray this was the 2nd part of the ADDI post or the first part of the Moonray post>>>) It's quite amusing to me to see how radically things have changed last July compared to this July/August. I remember last year I could basically throw a dart at a tech stock and I'd be up at least 15% within a week. This time I throw a dart and the damn thing boomerangs back and stabs me in the eye... Good thing those eyes of the borg are self replicating or I'd be functionally blind by now... Re: LSI and semis my sense is that the market is somewhat right to smack them since after all the semis depend on growing economies (stagnant or decaying ain't so good - since after all people will eat first, go to the beach to have a good time and then only if there is some money left buy a VCR or a TV or something so electronically dependent). The shot across the bow was Analog Devices' announcement now for this quarter but for the previous one when their stock went down from 38 to 22 or so (thence rebounding to 28 and falling again). At that time on here I believe I said that if ADI showed signs of weakness in their analog business we are all in big big trouble. The reason is that their analog parts are put in everything from fridges to motors to the littlest most mundane tech thing. So weakness there means there are major underpinnings of weak electronics related businesses around the globe. Ergo semis get slaughtered and it is ugly. (ADI is no NSM - if ADI says weak analog sales as they said in their current report there is a problem. ADI generally does not lose market share...) Now re: Mr. LSI who knows - they went from I think I said no weakness anywhere to what they said in their recent c.call "broad based weakness". It kind of all fits together in some sort of warped way because now we have the mundane (ADI) dead the the very high end customer specific (LSI) dead. Nevertheless LSI should not have fallen below say 18 if we were in a better psychological environment. We are not and we are getting quite an interesting situation here re: long term accumulation. The next bugaboo of course is China devaluation. I wish the Chinese would just go ahead and do it quite frankly. I have noticed with small caps that they just can't take these Chinese Water Torture long periods of uncertainty too well - they go down 1 dollar then recover only 25c then go down another dollar on the the next cause for concern and then recover only 20c - do this ten times or more as has happened in the last few months and we end up oodles of stocks that Graham and Dodd would have liked - below bv and below net net even! Amazing stuff (even if scary) - the whole liquidity argument not enough of buyers around for the smaller companies. ----- Backpedalling is right - ouch ouch ouch ouch ..... I think it is the pretend liquidity - margin - that has a large part to do with the smaller caps - and with the large caps the whole global economy / Russia thing. Should we now be thinking of the US stock market as having a Global Large Cap segment and everyone else segment. I was in the small caps because of their lack of exposure to all things evil in the world little did I know that the margin beasts or lack of Global Cap Leadership meant that my cheap small caps became 50% cheaper on average. A big haircut or more likely off with his head....

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