PTB, Tippet, Phillip and ET,
As I said in prior recent posts, take out 1,000 on the SP500 and it is a LONG way down.
That is why I placed a low of 4,200 on the DOW for 1998 in my forecast posted here last December (1997).
And the reason for my continued defense of the bullish position is I truly believed they would not give up without more of a fight. But the mutual fund cash flows gave their collective hand away and until that flow returns in some meaningful way, it is down, Down, DOWN.
I know first hand from talking to those near retirement that they were over-invested for being so close to retirement. I was able to convince some to pull at least 50% out... but even those people were telling me their investment companies were trying to get them to invest 100%. So these will be coming out tomorrow right behind the margin calls.
Two figures give you the magnitude of the problem:
- (Louis Dobbs) 5 trillion dollars lost since the 9,300 peak Barbara Barry correctly forecast; and,
- 1/2 trillion invested in last couple of years in these mutual fund flows.
Figuring the funds went in at a pace of 20 billion a month, what do you think will happen when they all try to get out the door at once in the next couple of days?
It may already be occurring!
And yes, THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT!!!! (Just HAD to get that one in.)
Bill |
