RE: "Petroleum evaluation engineers are going to just love the grayhairs evaluation process!!!"
I doubt that any petroleum evaluation engineer will have too much difficulty with it, RIK. You see, unlike you, they (being engineers) will be more modest and will be capable of admitting that they do not know everything !!!! They will be quite accustomed to, and familiar with, the process of making reasonable assumptions/estimates (or as you call them GUESSES).
I doubt that any of them would adopt your approach, RIK. That is, simply GUESS that there is no zone of interest (Is that why Apache adopted the "tight hole" status? Is that why they've incurred the expense of doing a large acid job on the well??), or GUESS that the zones of interest lack structural and lateral continuity (i.e. Let's just guess that the original seismic anomaly doesn't mean anything simply because the Leduc was not encountered!!), or GUESS that the host rock is not hydrocarbon bearing (Apache was probably just burning water on the location throughout the entire 7 day production test!!!! Those tricky buggers!!), or GUESS that there can be no reasonable reservoir model or recovery factor (because engineering considerations are required and there are only a few TRILLION cubic feet of similar reserves in the area from which to develop such "considerations"), or simply GUESS that the time is not ripe for producing the reserves and since the price can not be guaranteed for the life of the property we will have to GUESS it to be worthless.
Yep, your approach is sure easy !! And damn, it is fast, too !! If you need something for the play to work, just GUESS that it ain't there!! Then we can quickly conclude that NAV=0 and go on to the next play, assume that there's nothing there either, and so on !! Golly, a guy can sure get a lot done in a day with this approach!!
RE: "...read the BEARCAT thread in detail with particular emphasis on all his posts leading up to post #1218."
Do they not have a sizeable discovery ?? Will the Esso/BKP well not ring the cash registers nicely? What's your problem ??
RE: "...fortunately YOU and I were able to take profits in the Strachan sisters when prices were at a premium."
Congratulations on YOUR profits on the Sisters.
I long ago stated publicly on these threads that I have taken profits in SMALL trading positions in DAL (once) and FST (twice). By the way, I again hold a small position in FST !!
But, my core "Strachan play holding", TKE, has grown substantially in size since I first posted here. And, if you care to put some sizeable coin where that big trap of yours is, I'm quite prepared to prove that to you !!! |
