James, I didn't think you were saying anything about those small companies, I just pointed out that the amounts were small and were in line with the original investment. Anyway, it was the graphite fibril company that was bought, and mesoscale is a 50-50 venture. But this is little is the scheme of things.
Renee, I have a little more on quantech and it just doesn't compare to Origen technology. It was turned down by Igen a year ago when Igen could have licensed it for a few hundred thousand. They are trying to get sensitivity low enough to do routine tests, and I suspect the log range is limited. The literature sent to me was all sell and very little facts. This bothers me because I was very clear that this is what I was interested in, facts that is. I don't consider quantech a threat to Igen at all.
Igen is no down well below the buyout price that Roche would pay for the license. A minimum of 500 million up to 800 million (maybe higher).
A buyout of that license would be around $30/share, and Igen is only 22. Roche has good reason to settle this, and the meeting between Igen and Roche seems to indicate Roche is now serious about resolving this issue. Roche has the most successful introduction of an immunoassay instrument in history, and it's in their interest to clear this up. They probably want the POC, so that's another reason to settle. Igen got an injunction against Roche which is keeping them out of POC. Finally, the price of a buyout goes up as time goes on.
Plus their is a risk that Igen may eventually would be motivated to do deals with competators, and exclude Roche from POC with this technology.
Their seems to be no doubt as to Roche's commitment to Origen technology. Placements are continuing at the same rapid pace as before, and their version of the high throughput instrument was previewed at the AACC meeting, this is something they ususally don't do I believe.
Finallly, this technology is a replacement for existing technology and helps to cut costs in material and labor, and improves results. Since these are pay per reportable tests, there is nothing to keep customers for this instrument to obtain it. All the market downturn has done is create a major bargain IMO.
I'd guess that the Roche dispute and 1 or 2 POC agreements will be in place by the end of the year, maybe with a month or two (or anytime). This will bring Igen up closer to where it belongs. |
