Now for tomorrow and further:
1. If you are long anything, sell into strength tomorrow if we get any. If you want to fight against the odd, at least set a sell stop. This LT is different from the past. It's real fear but still plenty of indecision and still plenty of complacency. When all three ingredients are added together, it spells - "my mother-in-law got creamed".
2. At least learn from the story of my mother-in-law. She never learns and is still in denial after losing her life saving in the Malaysia stock market. Some people cannot break out of their own circle of confusion and greed.
3. Invest, don't speculate. This means be humble and let the trend be the guide. True investment requires a gameplan and the clear strategy currently is to sell the bloated stocks. The speculators will get creamed. The prudent investors will preserve their capital and hopefully more.
4. The nifty buy the dip strategy is over. Those who insist will get creamed. Don't believe - just try it.
5. Thanks CNBC today for being a total ass again as usual. I have never seen so many bear analysts/fund managers appearing on CNBC as this evening. It's just too much of a conincidence that all analysts and fund managers turn bearish today. The truth is, IMO, they just want to invite those with the biggest impact on their ratings and for today the surest way is to get the bears. Liz Ann Sonders (of Avatar Associates) - don't know if anybody remember, she was the one who came on CNBC and said the drillers were undervalued and should be bought aggessively late in Oct 1997. The next day OSX lost 6%, beginning the slide that resulted in total drownness today. Yes, that was she. Guess she learned her lesson on that episode. I never forget. A few months ago, she ruthlessly promoted BBBY on all the shows she appeared in. Funny she never had to say when to sell to survive. A pretty face, a wicked heart, just another bloated stock that should be shorted.
6. I think the safest bet now is to pick those remaining bloated who have corrected the least. A PE of >40 with next year growth rate of < 20 will be good candidate. The mo-mo are in reverse gear. Don't be surprised to see many electronic investors like us try to short in order to recover their capital. This thing can swing to the other side just as dramatic.
7. TA is less useful in this period of fear and irrational confusion. When all the monkeys are busy pushing the sell buttons, the last thing they worry about it technical support. TA is very useful in a sideway market, not in a full fledge bull run or bear flee. Anyone with some examples of bloated stocks with >40 next year PE and <20 next year growth rate?
8. Shelia or anyone, has anyone with level II taking a peep at the SCTR action today? Heavy volume and it did not move down. This is pretty weird stuff but I have seen this before as well. Just curious who is doing the buying today. |
