Hi Jason:
With all due respect, I think you are confusing apples and
oranges. You have been right on a 3 month time scale on
Winstar, and are trying to argue that this means that
you are right on a 3 year time scale. Not so. It is easy
to come up with unbelievably gloomy pessimistic assessments
on days when the market tanks. However, WCII has going for
it a much lower cost of delivering data and telephone service
than any of its wired CLEC competitors. This structural
advantage alone makes it a totally compelling long term
investment. So the true test of the validity of your predictions
will come not on a day of irrational panic selling, such as
today, but 3 to 5 years out, when sanity has come back to
the markets.
For example, all bank stocks such as Citicorp were in
the dumpster in 1990, which was a reflection of irrational
market worries concerning their long term survivability.
Yet, we all know that banks came back.
Similarly, the one thing we know concerning telecom
stocks is that incumbents (IXCs and ILECS) lose market
share to challengers. This is always what happens when
a monopoly market is opened up to competition. Expect
that the CLECs will do (are doing) to the RBOCs what
MCIU and Sprint did to AT&T in the long distance phone
business. To boot, wireless CLECs have an intrinsic
advantage over wired CLECs.
So instead of gloating, you should congratulate
yourself on having been right so far, and buy
with both hands as soon as the market turns.
Best wishes,
Bernard Levy |
