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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (25911)	8/31/1998 9:17:00 PM
From: Philipp	Read Replies (1) of 94695

Hi Bill: I took a graph paper and plotted the descent of the DOW minute by minute and then when the trend broke, I sold my puts immediately. Now with the advent of computers, you should be able to just watch the minute charts and pull the plug when the trend changes toward up. Yes, that sounds very reasonable. But I have been watching the indices very carefully for the last few weeks. There were just too many false trend reversals. We even had a couple of failed rallies today, and the early-afternoon one almost looked convincing (under normal circumstances I even might have gone long on it). I guess one should look at the selling momentum. When it starts to decline the sell-off should be in its last phase. I don't think that Vix will be useful. In 87 it approached 150, but there is no magic number. Well, it should be an experience in any case. Regards, Phil

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