MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?

MRVC 9.975

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Aug 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: SJS who wrote (10579)	9/1/1998 12:20:00 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) of 42804

1999 EPS estimate -- When you posted this Since we believe the company will continue to invest in its R&D and its sales and marketing capabilities, we are trimming our 1999 EPS estimate to $0.90 from $1.75 It sounded to me like BEST did the R&D and Mkt without brushing it past MRVC. And I wondered about the $0.90 so I just did my own estimate. ACT YTD 1H 2H EST TOTAL estimate 97 98 98 98 99 ------ ---------------------- --------- sales 165.5 126.6 118.4 245.0 315.0 28.6% costs 94.7 70.8 69.0 139.8 185.9 32.9% margin 42.8% 44.1% 41.7% 42.9% 41.0% R&D 13.1 10.5 12.0 22.5 28.0 24.4% SG&A 27.4 23.6 27.0 50.6 62.0 22.6% Operating Inc 30.3 21.7 10.4 32.1 39.2 22.0% Net Income 22.6 16.2 7.8 24.0 29.4 22.3% Shares 25,730 26,440 28,536 28,536 EPS 0.88 0.61 0.27 0.89 1.03 16.1% assumptions - * BEST for revenue 1998 and 1999 * MRVC press release for Gross Margin 1998 (low end of 43-45% range, or slightly lower, they said) Then I continued the trend for 41% in 1999 -- My guess. * SGA/R&D split unimportant - the total is the key. 10% over Q2 gives $19M Q3, or $39M in 2nd half. Then I threw in 23% growth in 99, but I hope they control it if revenue and GM are as indicated. Answer is $1.06 EPS vs. BEST .90 EPS which is 16% EPS growth over total 1998. revenue growth 28% Fair Value December 1999... $1.06 * 20-25 = $21-$27 Regards, Grommit

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