Dwight; RE:" I predict that the lowly RUT will arise..."
You're in denial, Dwight. The Fair Value argument was back there at RUT ~400. Equities have lost their credibility. The commodity surplus is not going to go away - it's going to get worse. This isn't a "bear market", IMHO. I've lived through some "bear markets", and they don't consist of "20% devaluations of the DOW" (whatever) that happen in six weeks. This is a friggin' crash. Oh, it'll bounce, sure - but then the 'bear market' will begin - a relentless devaluation that is like death by a thousand cuts - there just will not be sufficient kapital.
This isn't a "dip", it's a debacle. What follows next is shut-downs of surplus capacity that no one can afford to buy, even though the prices keep going down; lower costs of kapital can no longer spur significant investment because, we don't need more production capacity; employment has peaked, what follows next is massive layoffs. American shopping malls will become as hollow as her steel mills - why pay more for the 'packaging' ( a retail store ) than the product costs ? I mean, did people think that the DELL/AMZN model was only for PC's and BOOKS ?
The real danger is no longer economic, IMHO - the only winner this year will be USD cash; The real danger is political: The Americans are contemplating changing their leadership outside of their electoral process - and the Russians have already done so. Angry citizens more often than not want equally angry leaders.
well... maybe (^_^)
-Steve |
