Dwight; RE:" recession "
>While I'm not making any case for or against a US recession, I am saying that I don't think that equities are dead. Perhaps they've been dealt a concussion, but it's not fatal. IMO.
Well, what are you making a case for, Dwight ? You don't seem to feel that a 1000-point DOW drop in 6 days is serious - so, like - it sure comes across as some kinda denial, man. Take a stand... somewhere: what's fatal ? MSFT misses earnings estimates ? I submit: it will be the collapse of the RLX.X - Retail sector.
I haven't lost my faith in America, either, Dwight. And I don't think we're going into a recession, either - I think it will be more like a global depression.
You know: deflation, unemployment, falling prices, political chaos, etc.
Consumer Spending has been the last leg for the U.S. economy to stand on. As soon as the layoffs start - disposable income goes down, etc., that's when it will really start to get ugly, IMHO. So far, it's just been a stock market crash... a crash, not a correction.
'No exposure to Asia' evolves into 'No exposure to foreign currency devaluations' evolves into 'No exposure to disposable income dependency'.
Russia's scary because yeah, we had a lot of loans outstanding, and they got 30.000 nukes. Apparently what happens next is Japanese Banks.
-Steve |
