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Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks

NN 11.97

+5.3%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Serge Collins who wrote (6299)	9/1/1998 6:15:00 AM
From: nord	Read Replies (1) of 18016

Contrarians point of view. A month ago people were talking about 10 k on the Dow What has changed This is not the typical scenario of a prolonged bear ie rising interest rates// recession. fear has been snowballing with the backdrop of asia russia and the whitehouse scandal. fear begets fear but fear without the other ingredients ie recession high interest rates doen't typically mark the end of a bull market In 84 interest rates were high investor could go there and still get a reasonable rate of return and the economy was slowing IMO this is all a reaction to an external force typical of a pullback not forecasting a recession look back iraq kennedy assasination etc these events all caused sharp market pullbaacks based on fear and uncertainty. this is a political event not an economic one in the us imo What can be done now. as an investor take a look at you portfolio and risk adjust. from a world perspective the fed needs to lower short term rates With the bond yield inverted the real risk is that the banks will pull in, licquidity will dry up, and we run the risk of letting the us economy slide into a recesssion. If this occurs all bets are off as the us has been the engine that has swallowed the worlds goods and get them from falling into the great abyss. Mr. Greenspan holds the cards. with real inflation low commoditity disinflation at record level [look atr crb indes] there is plenty of room for the fed to verbally and fiscally reassure the markets. I hope and expect Mr. Greenspan to stand up make a brief statement saying the fed is watching closely. That he sees the us economy still strong but given the world backdrop he should and will cut short term rates. If this occurs soon I look for the market psychology to improve and the panic selling to abate. Perhaps this is what we needed to get the markets back to reality. What we don't need is for panick in the markets to lead to a us recession. Mr. Greenspan is smart and I suspect he is waiting for the right moment to reassure us all big daddy talk to me, preferably sooner rather than later. Regards and good luck to all. Rember this too shall pass. Regards, Norden I think yesterdays action was driven by fund managers raising cash in fear of redemption. Only time will tell but I think this volatility will pass. look at all the companies buying back there one shares I expect this will continue as they see great value in their own equity

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