BB,
>>... nobody has a handle on the future.
So what are we doing here?
I promised not to gloat, but this doesn't mean I have to be humble.
>>The down momentum now is much quicker and deeper than 29 or 87 or any other correction in this century.
I agree (but have some reservations against using the term "correction" for the period '29-'32).
The 1st leg down from the top was bigger and faster then '29.
Now that the crash phase have begun, I, too, am astounded by the magnitude of the decline.
Wave 1 of 3 of 1 completed yesterday a 13.9% decline in the OEX, 13.5% in the SPX in 4 trading sessions.
The 3 of 3 of 1 should move us to uncharted waters, and after a BIG 3 days jump, the 5 of 3 of 1 may take us to Dow 5300! and I'm not talking years from now, this could happen before the coming triple expiration day!
>>Prechter compared this bubble to the South Sea Bubble, OUCH.
And this guy called the '82-'93 bull market before it began!
So what was that you said about nobody having a handle on the future?
>I see a one day wonder before the down leg continues
IMO 2 of 3 of 1 starting today could be a classic .31 retrace, that's 495 on the OEX - a 5% correction in a day and a half.
As te battle on 500 was fought and lost yesterday, I believe the market will turn south before reaching this level. OTOH, the grossly oversold situation (and the Fear that exposed itself yesterday- opposite the complacency of last week) call for a nice rally.
So I'd say 484 minimum 496 maximum one to two days rally.
ATG |
