Amati vs. Aware Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amati vs. Aware

AWRE 2.290

+3.6%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Danny Briere who wrote (178)	12/18/1996 12:15:00 AM
From: Steven Sage	of 221

See, lost in the discussion of the technology is what the technology will be used for; this is the important focus needed. Understanding this is the key to understanding WHEN the technology will take off. The killer application is what makes the market for the technology; without it; great technology; no market; not earnings to reward investments in the technology. Sex videos were one of the first killer applications for the VCR. Spreadsheets for the PC. For the internet; it can be sex; and it can be other things. I haven't thought enough about it really to do the subject justice right off the cuff. It is the chicken and the egg story. If not enough people use the internet, you can't establish a market; and without the market; not enough people can justify the expense of the technology. Will the Web TV succeed. There was thinking that this would open the door for moving to internet commerce since mom and pop would be on the internet. Email is the current killer application and works well with a 14.4k modem; that is the problem. To justify the expense of the equipment needed for video you have to have a pervasive desire to have the capability that is compelling enough to justify the expense. Business to business can justify the cost and see the advantages; but we are years away from a to-the-home pervasive market; or are we? It has to be a market niche that is not served by any other providers. Cost is a factor with other providers available. I think that SI is a killer application for the internet, but again; no video is really needed. For low cost videophone capability; there isn't enough ROI for us tech investors to get excited about. So, the market is first the business community using it for business to business application where a show-me capability is essential; close client contact; tele-medicine is a big area. Where is the market to the home. Jim W. on the Amati thread talks and talks about how many copper lines are in the world; but he can't grasp that you have to have more that an ADSL modem and copper lines to make a market for a technology. Sorry if I am repeating or rambling; I am just sharing a stream of consciousness on the subject. I still ponder the answers; I would be happy to share my ponderings.

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