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Strategies & Market Trends : HONG KONG
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To: Ron Bower who wrote (2249)9/1/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: tom  Read Replies (2) of 2951
 
I don't know where you are getting your data on tourism and exports from. There is no recovery in sight....

- Exports fell by 13% in July (retained imports fell 36% so the domestic economy doesn't look too hot either)
- Retail sales fell by 16% in July because......
- Visitor arrivals fell by over 20% in May

You misunderstand my point on real estate values. If we ignore the state of the banking system then I believe that real estate values must come down in order to preserve the peg. Not the other way around. The HKMA is trying to hold up property prices which it must not be allowed to do. As the exchange rate is fixed, nominal prices must be allowed to fall to restore HK's competitiveness. High property prices are fine when things are booming but must fall when times are hard. And times haven't been this hard for more then 20 years.

You may have noticed the success Malaysia has had in dealing with hedge funds by intervening in the market <g>....Politicians always blame someone else for their own problems (I'm from the UK and the politicians did the same thing when Soros forced us out of ERM in 1992)

I think HK has many advantages over Malaysia and other Asian countries of which government non-intervention used to be one. This isn't a problem of hedge funds and nasty speculators attacking an innocent country. It is a question of the HK government protecting the wealth of a small, well connected minority at the expense of the population in general. Their actions are despicable.
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