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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Wolf 2 who wrote (14685)	9/1/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) of 25814

Hey Bro: Yup I know the feeling about being knocked senseless with declines so atrocious it is almost too funny to be sad. Or happy to be unhappy... Same problem as you do - have no cash available so not much else to do than wait and get pummeled some more. Funny thing about the next up-cycle. None of the experts will call it right that's a guarantee. Think about it. They said late 1997 and 1998 would be big. O sure. Before that of course everyone was looking for EPS of $7.00 for MU in 1996 and for LSI to come through the 1996 maelstrom with flying colors. O sure. Then they said late 1998 - we'll see. I'm convinced that this is not much more than an inventory fill thing going on in the PC arena and there is some major weakness as far as general demand is concerned for electronics goods worldwide. Nevertheless I am fairly certain that we should see the big things coming one day... just don't ask me when.... I have given up calling that... The thing about LSI is how they could go from having no weaknesses to having broad based weakness in the span of a couple of months. That just blows me away... O what the heck let's see I'll try one more time. The experts are saying a pick up next year and that the semi-equips will see bigger orders on a small pick up this Dec and a bigger pick up next June. Therefore I'll say they are wrong and the pick up will be later or earlier than this estimation... <Big g> The thing no one should forget is that this is still a monstrously cyclical industry with an unusual DRAM perturbation in the 1994-1995 area that is leading to monstrous oversupply in the general industry even today (hard to believe but I guess we have to admit this is true...). However as sure as the sun rises (assuming in bear markets the Sun still rises) the capacity will eventually be met and the stocks will be back to the heyday of the 1995 era. My best guess (here I go again) is that 1995 will be repeated around 2001 or so. So right now I am in 1 1/2 year accumulation mode till around the Dec 1999 followed by do nothing mode for the year 2000 and early 2001 followed by distribution over the 2001 to 2002 time frame. Assuming we are above 12 1/8 in 2001 or 2002 <g>

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