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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Frodo Baxter who wrote (6078)	9/1/1998 3:37:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	of 9980

O.K., I'm kow tow-ing, but I'm a little suspicious of the HKMA's honesty in the release. The $HK suffered a massive attack through the last third of July and into August before the HKMA started buying shares on about 8/12. How can the figure be the same when they had to use money from somewhere to protect the $HK during that period? I accept the data you posted, but something in the back of my mind tells me it's impossible. Maybe they're not releasing the true figures because: A: They don't want the specs to see what their burn rate is/was. B: (Totally my off-the-wall opinion) Because we all know August's data on the fund's depletion will be significantly high, they carried over July's usage into Aug's in order to subdue panic and to play head games with the specs. I'll stick with A, though. Note: Govs. fudge data all the time. The Peoples bank of China admitted last week that non-performing loans are 24% of loans o/s compared to 10% - 11% as was previously acknowledge by the Chinese gov. Fitch immediately downgraded chinese banks after the release. Also, Fitch today downgraded 8 HK banks. Exclusive of my conspiracy theory though, I admit L.K. deserves the cigar for our cyberspace conquest.

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