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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant?

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To: Carl R. who wrote (3756)	9/1/1998 5:16:00 PM
From: eabDad	of 4697

Carl: Actually I have done the analysis on the past two down cycles, 1985-87 and 1990-92 and found the following conclusions: - Within 18 months of the ultimate peak, the ultimate low was reached in 2/3 of the stocks. - For the other 1/3, new lows were reached later in the multi-year cycle. - In the first group, companies which gained share during the slow period or grew product lines never saw the original low (the "blue chip rising stars"), this amounted to almost 1/3 of the total group - The other half of the first group (or the other 1/3) were the blue chip style companies which had steady share. These companies typically retested the original low later in the cycle without breaking it. - The group that hit new lows are the dogs, or the companies losing share. I would place AMAT in the rising stars, KLAC in the solid group which retest successfully, and LRCX in the lackluster group. Most of the companies in the lackluster group have already broken the 1996 lows, but I do not expect AMAT to come close. But my target range for AMAT is 17-19. Z

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