Jeff, FBN, and all:
Thanks for the last two years. While I have not posted much, I have followed your postings in many stocks.
It has always been my intention to be out of y2k stocks by 9/1/98 (I had it in my peofile for many months). I initially set this target based on the psychology of the mutual fund investor - always looking ahead 12-18 months. I have experience with how investor psychology works. Market dynamics is a constant struggle with psychology and fundamentals. The psychology says "After 1/1/2000, revenue is zero." It really does not matter if it is true (and I am convinced it is not), but the truth is we are investing in stocks whose price is set by supply and demand. Demand stinks with that psychology in place, and prices are not good.
I have made good money in the past, with over 20% of my portfolio in y2k before May, and 5-10% since then. My only mistake was not to see the negative psychology for what it was emerge by early May, and firm by early July, so have lost a little recently. For those interested, my last sale was TAVA on 8/31 am at 5 (cost was 10 something).
I have just caught of with this thread's postings over the last 2 months and I wish I had read earlier. I agree with the Monk's bear outlook, and when SOROS and RedDragon bailed from y2k in the first week of August, I think I would have followed them and saved some money.
What have I learned? What the y2k investment experience has shown me is a list of companies whose core business is enterprise software and services. This is a great core growth business, and will continue to follow KEA, SDS, CBR, and SYNT among others. I will take the next couple months to figure out which companies have the best fundamentals in this area and what their values should be for purchase.
You will see me around... thanks all.
Z |
