It is a big deal. As big a deal is that the McClellan summation index
took out its 4 year bull cycle low the last week of July.
We are clearly in the 4 year cyclical corrective/bear process.
You can check the charts at decisionpoint.com
However, these things do not work in a vacuum. The market these days
does things very quickly, in a blink of the eye. Down in 1-3 days and it is all over.
If it were all over, we would have done it before anybody could blink
an eye. In the meantime, we have reached an oversold condition that
is truly oversold and meaningful. Check out the last week of August, 1990 for an example of what may be. Then you have political affairs, like the number of puts bought and their high price, which is reflected in the VIX.
My guess is that the market will rally a bit more and then be in a holding pattern until the September expirations.
However, in the meantime, a number of pundits, especially planetary ones and bearish ones, are telling us the market is about to crash.
The 55 day pattern, etc. It is not a time to be complacent.
I find it difficult to believe that the market will crash from what already is a very oversold condition, but who knows about these planets? Jupiter strikes Uranus, and its the end of the world.
Good Luck,
Vitas |
